The Caribbean and Climate Change: The Costs of Inaction
“The Caribbean and Climate Change: The Costs of Inaction” is a study by Ramón Bueno, Cornelia Herzfeld, Elizabeth Stanton, and Frank Ackerman. Commissioned by Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), this is the first detailed analysis of the potential economic effects of continued climate change for the entire Caribbean region. The report, similar in methodology to the recent study on the cost of climate change in Florida, compares two possibilities -- an optimistic rapid stabilization case and a pessimistic business-as-usual case – and focuses on three categories of effects: hurricane damages, loss of tourism revenue, and infrastructure damage due to sea-level rise.
The costs of inaction, or the difference between these two scenarios, are the potential savings from acting in time to prevent the worst economic consequences of climate change. The report points out that, although Caribbean nations have contributed little to the release of the greenhouse gases that drive climate change, they will pay a heavy price for global inaction in reducing emissions.
Key findings of the report include:
- The costs of inaction will amount to 22 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) for the Caribbean as a whole by 2100;
- The costs of inaction will reach an astonishing 75 percent or more of GDP by 2100 in Dominica, Grenada, Haiti, St. Kitts & Nevis and Turks & Caicos;
- The Caribbean’s largest island, Cuba, faces a nearly 13 percent economic hit by mid-century, and a 27 percent loss by 2100, unless there is swift action to address climate change;
- Losses from inaction would be less severe but still significant in Puerto Rico, reaching nearly 3 percent by 2050 and 6 percent by the end of the century;
- The nation of Colombia, with its long Caribbean coastline, faces permanent flooding of 1,900 square miles in low-lying coastal areas, affecting 1.4 million people.
English version:
Executive Summary
Full report High Resolution
Full report Low Resolution
Versión en español:
Resumen Ejecutivo
Informe completo Resolución Alta
Informe completo Resolución Baja
Press
Ramón Bueno was in Miami September 17-18, 2008 presenting results from EDF-sponsored research reports by the Climate Economics group on the costs of inaction on climate change in the Caribbean and Florida. The trip included radio interviews on Tampa's WMNF Evening News and Miami's WKAT 1360 ("Rich Roffman Show") and presentations before the "Economic, Social and Health Adaptation Committee" of the Miami-Dade Climate Change Advisory Task Force; City of Miami's Office of Sustainable Initiatives staff and Mayor Manny Díaz (current president of the U.S. Conference of Mayors); at the Spanish-language El Nuevo Herald editorial office; with Rep. Dan Gelber (FLA House minority leader)and with staff person for US Congressman Lincoln Díaz-Balart.
Radio Links:
1 - September 17th, 2008. WMNF Evening News, with Mitch E. Perry
"Effect of climate change on Carribean nations studied"
http://www.wmnf.org/news_stories/6117
mp3 recording at: http://s3.amazonaws.com/wmnf/news_story_soundclips/1239/Ramon_Bueno_on_global_warming_in_Carribean_comp.mp3
2 - September 18th, 2008 at 5pm with Ramon Bueno and Larry Milian, The Rich Roffman Show.
http://www.therichroffmanshow.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=131&Itemid=45
South Florida Sun-Sentinel
JUNE 1, 20008
Climate change could cripple Caribbean economy (pdf link to G-DAE)
EcoAméricas
In English:
JUNE 2008, Gauging climate change’s economic toll on Caribbean, Q&A
in Spanish
JUNIO 2008, Sopesando los costos económicos del cambio climático en el Caribe, Entrevista