New Report

A Copenhagen Prognosis: towards a safe climate future

Kartha, S., Siebert, C.K, Mathur, R., Nakicenovic, N., Ramanathan, V., Rockström, J., Schellnhuber, H.J, Srivastava, L. and Watt, R.

December 2009

A concise diagnosis of the state of the bioshpere and observed trends and offers a treatment plan that is consistent with a 2°C warming threshold, equity and economic development. More information and download the report.

Among it’s key conclusions are that:

- Emerging scientific results suggest that greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions targets currently being tabled are not consistent with the expressed political will to protect humanity against high risks of devastating climate impacts and significant risks of self-amplifying global warming.

- Based on the available carbon budget, and if we are to have a good (75 per cent) chance for warming to stay below 2°C, global GHG emissions would almost certainly need to decline extremely rapidly after 2015, and reach essentially zero by midcentury.

- There is no evidence suggesting it is impossible to rise to this challenge. To the contrary, the growing body of analytical work examining such scenarios at the global and regional level suggest it is not only technically feasible but also economically affordable, even profitable.

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The following organisations and individuals have endorsed the Prognosis:

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI)
Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)
German Development Institute (DIE)
Matthew England, ARC Federation Fellow and joint Director of the Climate Change Research Centre of the University of NSW, Australia
Sivan Kartha, Head of Climate and Energy Programme, Stockholm Environment Insitute (SEI)
Clarisse Kehler Siebert, Research Fellow, Stockholm Environment Institute
Ritu Mathur, Associate Director, Energy Environment Policy Division The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI)
James J. McCarthy, Alexander Agassiz Professor of Biological Oceanography, Harvard University
Dirk Messner, Director, German Development Institute (DIE), Vice-Chair of the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)
Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Deputy Director of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
V. (Ram) Ramanathan, Victor Alderson Professor of Applied Ocean Sciences, Distinguished Professor of Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego
Johan Rockström, Executive Director, Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and Stockholm Resilience Centre (SRC)
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Chair of the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)
Leena Srivastava, Executive Director, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI)