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Future Sustainability Program |
Future Sustainability Program |
Resources and Publications
Web Sites I Manuals I Software I Papers and Reports
Web Sites
Scenarios for Sustainability: A source for freely-available and open-source tools, data, and methods for scenario development. The site focuses on the practicalities of carrying out sustainability assessments and provides links to sites with additional resources.
COMMEND: COMMEND (COMMunity for ENergy environment & Development) is an international initiative designed to foster a community among energy analysts working on energy for sustainable development. COMMEND is an initiative of SEI’s Climate and Energy Program. For more information, see the COMMEND & LEAP page on this site.
WEAP21: WEAP, the Water Evaluation And Planning system is a user-friendly software tool that takes an integrated approach to water resources planning. WEAP and the WEAP21 web site are initiatives of SEI’s Water and Sanitation Program. For more information, see the WEAP page on this site.
Software
The Scenario Toolkit is a set of open-source software tools to support qualitative scenario development, including links between qualitative and quantitative analyses.
The IPAT-S modeling language is an open-source modeling language designed to support sustainability scenario development. IPAT-S comes with a suite of supporting tools to assist in developing, maintaining, using, and sharing scenario models.
LEAP, the Long range Energy Alternatives Planning system, is an integrated energy-environment modeling tool.
WEAP, the Water Evaluation And Planning system, is a user-friendly software tool that takes an integrated approach to water resources planning.
UNEP IEA Training Manual Module 6: Scenario development and analysis The GEO approach to developing scenarios, with contributions from SEI staff.
Developing Quantitative Scenarios: A Handbook for Accidental Practitioners: A short manual outlining an approach to organizing a quantitative scenario analysis. (Note that while it provides a process, it does not go into details about modeling strategies.) (PDF format, 0.3 MB)
Papers and Reports
Converting Qualitative Assessments to Quantitative Assumptions: Bayes' Rule and the Pundit's Wager
Technological Forecasting & Social Change
Eric Kemp-Benedict
DOI information: 10.1016/j.techfore.2009.06.008
WP-US08-04: Elicitation Techniques for Bayesian Network Models
Eric Kemp-Benedict, June 2008
The Akropong approach to multi-sector project planning. Eric Kemp-Benedict and William Kojo Agyemang-Bonsu, Futures 40 (2008), 834–840.
Using base-year data with empirical scenario models. Eric Kemp-Benedict, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 75 (2008), 759-770.
Converting qualitative assessments to quantitative assumptions: A Bayesian approach. Eric Kemp-Benedict, presented at the XXth World Futures Studies Federation Conference in Trollhättan, Sweden, 29 June-2 July 2008. (PDF format, 0.2 MB)
Bayesian methods for livelihood, water, and poverty analysis Eric Kemp-Benedict, Matt Chadwick, and Chayanis Krittasudthacheewa, presented at the CPWF 2nd International Forum on Water and Food. Available from the IFWF2 Presentations page under Day 2, Drivers and Processes of Change, presentation PA093.